‘American Idol’ Meets ‘Survivor’

Dan Schnur was the national communications director for John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2000. (Full biography.)

Back in the heady, halcyon days of winter, the Democratic primary had taken on the characteristics of a high-stakes and more substantive version of “American Idol,” in which a dwindling number of contestants performed their best material before a group of surrogate judges and a nationwide audience. The eventual winner would receive not only the party’s presidential nomination, but an almost certain path to the White House over a baggage-laden Republican nominee. While there was great suspense over which competitor would eventually claim the prize, the political version of the stardom that had been granted to Kelly Clarkson and Ruben Studdard seemed a certainty for the victor.

But unlike the real “American Idol,” the primary season did not play out on nearly as precise a time line, so the audience is getting restless and the contenders are getting peevish. To extend the reality television metaphor slightly past the breaking point, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama now resemble the participants on an unusual version of “Survivor” in which they are presented with increasingly unbecoming challenges (bowling, shots-and-beers, endless media interviews about electability and authenticity) on their way to the final Tribal Council in Denver this August. Senators Obama and Clinton seem increasingly grim with their less stirring circumstances: the glamour has long since disappeared as they trudge from state to state in search of a magic formula that can help them short-circuit the unyielding arithmetic of delegate acquisition.

But the audience is becoming impatient as well. This newspaper’s editorial page has unloaded on Senator Clinton with both barrels, but the rising unfavorable ratings of both candidates demonstrate that the voters are unhappy with both candidates’ behavior. And while both campaigns talk optimistically of a final decision by early June, it appears that only a large Obama victory in Indiana will prevent this fight from continuing through most of the summer. As John McCain pulls even in many national polls, that battle is beginning to worry Democrats at all levels.

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